Don’t Believe the Hype: What’s Really Going on With Buyers and Sellers in Today’s Market
If you’ve been scrolling social media or chatting with friends lately, you may have come across some alarming headlines—namely, a viral claim by Redfin that the housing market now has 500,000 more sellers than buyers. That headline is definitely attention-grabbing, but here at Texan Heritage Realty Group, we believe in facts, not fear.
Let’s break down what’s really going on so you can confidently respond when friends, clients, or even family ask, “Is the housing market really crashing?”
📉 Redfin’s Claim: 1.9 Million Listings
Redfin reported 1.943 million active listings nationwide. But according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the real number of active listings in the MLS was just over 1.45 million. Other reliable sources like the St. Louis Fed, MarketWatch, and Business Insider put April 2025’s count even lower—around 959,000.
So how does Redfin end up nearly a million listings off?
Because they’re using their own formula. Instead of counting just active MLS listings, Redfin includes For Sale By Owners (FSBOs), new construction homes not yet listed, and even speculative sellers. In short, they’re casting a wide net to include “anyone who might be trying to sell.” That’s not industry-standard, and it’s certainly not apples to apples with official MLS numbers.
🧮 Redfin’s Buyer Math: 1.453 Million Buyers?
This number is even murkier. There is no national tracking system for active homebuyers. Redfin says they use internal metrics based on the Pending Home Sales Report, but this isn’t a true reflection of buyer activity—just homes that recently went under contract.
So if someone asks, “Are there really only 1.4 million buyers out there?” your answer should be: There’s no way to actually count that.
📊 Is There Really an Oversupply?
Let’s go with the most conservative and reliable number—959,000 active listings per the St. Louis Fed. If we’re pacing toward 4 million home sales in 2025, that’s about 333,000 homes sold per month. That means roughly 1 in 3 active listings are selling every month.
And inventory? NAR currently puts us at a 4.4-month supply of homes. To put that in perspective, when the market crashed in 2007-2008, we had over a 10-month supply and more than 4.2 million homes on the market. We’re still at only 25% of that inventory.
Yes, inventory has risen—but from historically low levels. We’re still nowhere near a true “buyer’s market,” let alone one that signals falling home values.
🧠 The Real Takeaway
At Texan Heritage Realty Group, we don’t sugarcoat things—but we also don’t let our clients be misled by fear-based headlines or flawed data. The reality is: the market is normalizing, not collapsing.
There are always people who want to see real estate fail—whether it’s for clicks, views, or social media engagement. But our job is to keep you informed and confident, backed by actual data—not drama.
📞 Have questions about buying or selling in today’s market? We’re here to walk you through it, step by step. Reach out anytime—we're just a call, click, or coffee away.
📍 Texan Heritage Realty Group | Cleburne, TX
📱 817-776-8319 | 🌐https://www.texanheritage.com/
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